
Even
with the contention on whether power shift to Delta North is a
desirable political option, there are new dynamics in the trends of the
shaping contest that points to the fact that the key to the Government
House in 2015 will go to the Anioma nation unless the political actors
from the region bungles the opportunity.
As events unfold on the
political scene, the critical issues remain that dominate the space are
that of equity, justice and fairness for all sections of the state.
There are also issues of the collective aspiration of the people to
produce the next governor against the personal ego of the political
actors, but above all, the need to eschew any form of imposition of
aspirant, from any quarter.
Uduaghan, Gbagi, Okowa and OcheiWatchers
of the unfolding political trends in Delta State will ignore the body
language of the present occupant of the Unity House at Okpanam road, at
their own peril. It important to understand of the thinking of the man
who whose tenure expires on May 29, 2015.
What is clear is that
the entrance of the former Permanent Secretary, Government House,Chief
Tony Obuh, into the governorship race has become the game changer.
Game changerThe
shape of the battle ahead are beginning to emerge and even the doubting
Thomas’s will begin to accept the fact that the key to the government
House in Asaba may indeed go to a Delta North person.
Who that person would be remains a matter of high level politickingFirst,
there is going to be a resistance from the political class and
entrenched interest in the politics of the state. Secondly, there will
be a re-alignment of forces by those who want to cling to anybody that
gets into office by those whose mission in politics is stomach
infrastructure.
It will mean redrawing the political map of the
State in a very significant way. This will manifest in the ascendancy of
minorities, who may hold the balance of power in the new process of
social and political re-engineering of Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan who has
said that he will not hand over power to “over ambitious politicians.”
Secondly,
it has redefine the content and character of the 2015 battle both for
the PDP and the opposition parties that are waiting for PDP to bungle.
Matters arising from the entrance of Tony ObuhIt
is still too early to draw conclusions on the emerging trends in Delta
politics, but there are some key factors must be taken into
considerations.
The first will be the disposition of the national
leadership of the ruling party which is now facing the crisis of
managing what the political class in the state is calling imposition of
an aspirant on them. But Dr. Uduaghan has tried to show that he was not
imposing any aspirant on the state by staying away from Chief Tony
Obuh’s thanks giving event in Agbor this last week end.
This
notwithstanding, Obuh is seen as an aspirant who enjoys the confidence
of his boss and that seems to be galvanizing osmotic pull of crowd
towards his direction.
Chief Obuh may not have a pedigree as a politician but he comes without any baggage which makes his entrance attractive.
The promoters of Delta United for Tony Obuh are people who are seen to be very close to the powers that be in the state.
The expected backlashAs
stated earlier, it will be interesting to see how the leadership of the
Party in the State and at the national level handles the emerging
scenario without implosion.
Delta state is a predominantly PDP
state and any candidate that gets its ticket is presumed to have a
greater chances of winning but, chairman of Anioma Agenda, Barrister
Alex Onwuadiamu said the elections in Ekiti and Osun states have left
some valuable lessons for the leadership of PDP to guide them in making
any decision in Delta state. On the other hand the APC is watching to
see where the blunder from PDP will be a blessing in disguise for it.
Okowa’s burdenChief
Tony Obuh hails from Ika and many observers believe his entrance will
have significant impact on the aspirations of Dr. Ifeanyi A. Okowa, the
seating Senator for Delta North who was seen by many as one of the
leading contenders in the race.
He is believed to enjoy a broad
based support across the state and his supporters argue that he had the
promise of Chief James O. Ibori, in 2007, to step down for the incumbent
governor and prepare to succeed him at the end of his eight year term.
Now,
the Ika nation will have to choose between Dr. Okowa and Chief Tony
Obuh. Whoever picks the governorship ticket between the will mean that
the Senate seat that is presently held by Dr. Okowa, will be tossed up.
Ika nation will not hold the governorship and the Senate seat at the
same time. This will bring the Aniocha/Oshimili and Ndokwa Federal
Constituencies into the fray. Already, Chief Peter Nwaoboshi and Dr.
Maryam Alli, Hon. Pascal Adigwe have lined up while many people expect
Prince Ned Nwoko who contested in 2011, to stage a comeback.
Challenges before the AspirantsThe
political atmosphere in Delta State is simmering. The political class
in the state is up in arms to resist what they consider to be an attempt
by the governor to manipulate the issue of who succeeds him in 2015.
But that notwithstanding the three Senatorial zones have lined up their
men in spite of the strong agitation for equity, justice and fair play.
From the Central Senatorial District, there is robust challenge to the
idea of Delta North producing the next governor. From this zone we have
the likes of Chief Great Ogboru, Olorogun Kenneth Gbagi, Olorogun Otega
Emerhor, Olorogun David Edevbie, Obarisi’ Ovie Omo-Agege as the key
contenders. Olorogun David Edevbie,the former Commissioner for Finance
was hailed as”the man that Delta State needs and the last minute joker
for Delta Central”. Edevbie was the Principal Secretary to late
President Umar Yar’Adua and was expected to galvanize the Urhobo nation
in quest to regain power in 2015. But in the event of PDP insisting that
Delta North should get it, then it will be a catch 22 situation for
Olorogun Edevbie for whom the option of going to fly the flag of an
opposition party will be far-fetched.
This is a challenge facing
the likes of Obaris Ovie Omo Agege who contested for primaries in 2007
and later joined Action Congress of Nigeria, in 2011 and mounted a stiff
opposition to Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, when his election was annulled in
2011.
The former Minister of State for Education is Olorogun
Kenneth Gbagi has the resources to challenge for the office but his
effort to create a support base in Delta North remains an uphill task
given the determination of aspirants from Delta North not to play a
second fiddle.
Former Minister for Niger Delta Affairs Elder Godsday Orubebe is only notable aspirants from Delta South in the race.
Even
in a fair contest the former Minister will put the ruling PDP in a
situation where it has to explain why a particular senatorial zone will
have a straight back to back hold on such a sensitive position.
Delta North TrainThe
other outstanding aspirants include: Chief Victor Ochei, Hon. Ndudi
Elumelu,Chief Jackson Opone, Chief Charles Emetulu, Chief Godswill
Obielum, Prof Sylvester Monye and Dr, Ngozi Olejeme who is one of the
female aspirants.
Until the recent events that forced his
resignation from office as the speaker of Delta Sate House of Assembly,
Hon. Victor Ochei was one of the formidable aspirants for the office of
the governor of the State.
The former Speaker has strength of
character and courage which his detractors find very uncomfortable in
the state where sycophancy had become an industry.
Ochei has the
structure and the financial muscle, the vision and intellect to weather
the storm. He has also fought bruising electoral battles in the past. He
is an electoral asset that PDP would not toy with.
Hon. Godwin Ndudi
Elumelu is another tested hand in electoral battle front. This two term
member of the House of Reps, representing Aniocha/Oshimili Federal
Constituency has the political structure, financial muscle and political
sagacity to clinch the ticket.
Chief Clement Ofuani has been
seen many analysts as one of the aspirants in terms of his vision, level
headed, forthrightness and competence o govern the state.
Prof
Sylvester Monye who is the Special Adviser to President Goodluck
Jonathan on Project Monitoring is considered to be a front runner
although he has no electoral track record comparable to the likes of
Okowa, Elumelu, Ochei, Utomi, Okocha, and Obielum
While it is
desirable to have female voices Nigeria’s Governor’s Forum, the truth is
that Delta state may not prepared to have a female as the Chief
Executive. This is the major obstacle to Dr. Ngozi Olejeme and Dr.
Esther Uduehi who are also formidable aspirants in their own right.
With
entrance of Sir Tony Obuh in the race, it will be interesting to see
who far Dr. Festus Okubor and Prince Sam Obi will manage their own
aspiration when it comes to choosing between Dr. Okowa and Sir. Tony
Obuh for Ika nation. It will be unwise to ignore the influence of Chief
James O.Ibori and the National leadership of PDP in this race. Also
crucial will be the role of Dr. Cairo Ojugboh the South South regional
Chairman of the ruling Party who hails from Ika and finally, the
position of Anioma Congress in canvassing that there should be a power
shift and that a qualified and tested hand should be selected from Delta
North.
Barrister Alex Onwuadiamu is of the view that the
election in Ekiti State and Osun States would seem to suggest that
Nigerians would defeat any policy or action that they are not
comfortable with regardless of the incumbency factor. With 25 local
government councils in Delta state, none of the three Senatorial zones
can singularly produce the Governor for the State. A combined strength
of Delta South and Delta Central will produce 16 states, but to win the
require 25% spread, the winner will get 17 Local Governments. Those who
claim that Delta Central alone produces 60% of the votes in the state
are being economical with the truth. The truth is that negotiation
cooperation and and collaboration are the key factors.
Source: Published by Vanguard on October 07, 2014 BY HUGO ODIOGOR.