Even with the contention on whether power shift to Delta North is a desirable political option, there are new dynamics in the trends of the shaping contest that points to the fact that the key to the Government House in 2015 will go to the Anioma nation unless the political actors from the region bungles the opportunity.
As events unfold on the political scene, the critical issues remain that dominate the space are that of equity, justice and fairness for all sections of the state. There are also issues of the collective aspiration of the people to produce the next governor against the personal ego of the political actors, but above all, the need to eschew any form of imposition of aspirant, from any quarter.
Uduaghan, Gbagi, Okowa and Ochei
Watchers of the unfolding political trends in Delta State will ignore the body language of the present occupant of the Unity House at Okpanam road, at their own peril. It important to understand of the thinking of the man who whose tenure expires on May 29, 2015.
What is clear is that the entrance of the former Permanent Secretary, Government House,Chief Tony Obuh, into the governorship race has become the game changer.
Game changer
The shape of the battle ahead are beginning to emerge and even the doubting Thomas’s will begin to accept the fact that the key to the government House in Asaba may indeed go to a Delta North person.
Who that person would be remains a matter of high level politicking
First, there is going to be a resistance from the political class and entrenched interest in the politics of the state. Secondly, there will be a re-alignment of forces by those who want to cling to anybody that gets into office by those whose mission in politics is stomach infrastructure.
It will mean redrawing the political map of the State in a very significant way. This will manifest in the ascendancy of minorities, who may hold the balance of power in the new process of social and political re-engineering of Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan who has said that he will not hand over power to “over ambitious politicians.”
Secondly, it has redefine the content and character of the 2015 battle both for the PDP and the opposition parties that are waiting for PDP to bungle.
Matters arising from the entrance of Tony Obuh
It is still too early to draw conclusions on the emerging trends in Delta politics, but there are some key factors must be taken into considerations.
The first will be the disposition of the national leadership of the ruling party which is now facing the crisis of managing what the political class in the state is calling imposition of an aspirant on them. But Dr. Uduaghan has tried to show that he was not imposing any aspirant on the state by staying away from Chief Tony Obuh’s thanks giving event in Agbor this last week end.
This notwithstanding, Obuh is seen as an aspirant who enjoys the confidence of his boss and that seems to be galvanizing osmotic pull of crowd towards his direction.
Chief Obuh may not have a pedigree as a politician but he comes without any baggage which makes his entrance attractive.
The promoters of Delta United for Tony Obuh are people who are seen to be very close to the powers that be in the state.
The expected backlash
As stated earlier, it will be interesting to see how the leadership of the Party in the State and at the national level handles the emerging scenario without implosion.
Delta state is a predominantly PDP state and any candidate that gets its ticket is presumed to have a greater chances of winning but, chairman of Anioma Agenda, Barrister Alex Onwuadiamu said the elections in Ekiti and Osun states have left some valuable lessons for the leadership of PDP to guide them in making any decision in Delta state. On the other hand the APC is watching to see where the blunder from PDP will be a blessing in disguise for it.
Okowa’s burden
Chief Tony Obuh hails from Ika and many observers believe his entrance will have significant impact on the aspirations of Dr. Ifeanyi A. Okowa, the seating Senator for Delta North who was seen by many as one of the leading contenders in the race.
He is believed to enjoy a broad based support across the state and his supporters argue that he had the promise of Chief James O. Ibori, in 2007, to step down for the incumbent governor and prepare to succeed him at the end of his eight year term.
Now, the Ika nation will have to choose between Dr. Okowa and Chief Tony Obuh. Whoever picks the governorship ticket between the will mean that the Senate seat that is presently held by Dr. Okowa, will be tossed up. Ika nation will not hold the governorship and the Senate seat at the same time. This will bring the Aniocha/Oshimili and Ndokwa Federal Constituencies into the fray. Already, Chief Peter Nwaoboshi and Dr. Maryam Alli, Hon. Pascal Adigwe have lined up while many people expect Prince Ned Nwoko who contested in 2011, to stage a comeback.
Challenges before the Aspirants
The political atmosphere in Delta State is simmering. The political class in the state is up in arms to resist what they consider to be an attempt by the governor to manipulate the issue of who succeeds him in 2015. But that notwithstanding the three Senatorial zones have lined up their men in spite of the strong agitation for equity, justice and fair play. From the Central Senatorial District, there is robust challenge to the idea of Delta North producing the next governor. From this zone we have the likes of Chief Great Ogboru, Olorogun Kenneth Gbagi, Olorogun Otega Emerhor, Olorogun David Edevbie, Obarisi’ Ovie Omo-Agege as the key contenders. Olorogun David Edevbie,the former Commissioner for Finance was hailed as”the man that Delta State needs and the last minute joker for Delta Central”. Edevbie was the Principal Secretary to late President Umar Yar’Adua and was expected to galvanize the Urhobo nation in quest to regain power in 2015. But in the event of PDP insisting that Delta North should get it, then it will be a catch 22 situation for Olorogun Edevbie for whom the option of going to fly the flag of an opposition party will be far-fetched.
This is a challenge facing the likes of Obaris Ovie Omo Agege who contested for primaries in 2007 and later joined Action Congress of Nigeria, in 2011 and mounted a stiff opposition to Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, when his election was annulled in 2011.
The former Minister of State for Education is Olorogun Kenneth Gbagi has the resources to challenge for the office but his effort to create a support base in Delta North remains an uphill task given the determination of aspirants from Delta North not to play a second fiddle.
Former Minister for Niger Delta Affairs Elder Godsday Orubebe is only notable aspirants from Delta South in the race.
Even in a fair contest the former Minister will put the ruling PDP in a situation where it has to explain why a particular senatorial zone will have a straight back to back hold on such a sensitive position.
Delta North Train
The other outstanding aspirants include: Chief Victor Ochei, Hon. Ndudi Elumelu,Chief Jackson Opone, Chief Charles Emetulu, Chief Godswill Obielum, Prof Sylvester Monye and Dr, Ngozi Olejeme who is one of the female aspirants.
Until the recent events that forced his resignation from office as the speaker of Delta Sate House of Assembly, Hon. Victor Ochei was one of the formidable aspirants for the office of the governor of the State.
The former Speaker has strength of character and courage which his detractors find very uncomfortable in the state where sycophancy had become an industry.
Ochei has the structure and the financial muscle, the vision and intellect to weather the storm. He has also fought bruising electoral battles in the past. He is an electoral asset that PDP would not toy with.
Hon. Godwin Ndudi Elumelu is another tested hand in electoral battle front. This two term member of the House of Reps, representing Aniocha/Oshimili Federal Constituency has the political structure, financial muscle and political sagacity to clinch the ticket.
Chief Clement Ofuani has been seen many analysts as one of the aspirants in terms of his vision, level headed, forthrightness and competence o govern the state.
Prof Sylvester Monye who is the Special Adviser to President Goodluck Jonathan on Project Monitoring is considered to be a front runner although he has no electoral track record comparable to the likes of Okowa, Elumelu, Ochei, Utomi, Okocha, and Obielum
While it is desirable to have female voices Nigeria’s Governor’s Forum, the truth is that Delta state may not prepared to have a female as the Chief Executive. This is the major obstacle to Dr. Ngozi Olejeme and Dr. Esther Uduehi who are also formidable aspirants in their own right.
With entrance of Sir Tony Obuh in the race, it will be interesting to see who far Dr. Festus Okubor and Prince Sam Obi will manage their own aspiration when it comes to choosing between Dr. Okowa and Sir. Tony Obuh for Ika nation. It will be unwise to ignore the influence of Chief James O.Ibori and the National leadership of PDP in this race. Also crucial will be the role of Dr. Cairo Ojugboh the South South regional Chairman of the ruling Party who hails from Ika and finally, the position of Anioma Congress in canvassing that there should be a power shift and that a qualified and tested hand should be selected from Delta North.
Barrister Alex Onwuadiamu is of the view that the election in Ekiti State and Osun States would seem to suggest that Nigerians would defeat any policy or action that they are not comfortable with regardless of the incumbency factor. With 25 local government councils in Delta state, none of the three Senatorial zones can singularly produce the Governor for the State. A combined strength of Delta South and Delta Central will produce 16 states, but to win the require 25% spread, the winner will get 17 Local Governments. Those who claim that Delta Central alone produces 60% of the votes in the state are being economical with the truth. The truth is that negotiation cooperation and and collaboration are the key factors.
Source: Published by Vanguard on October 07, 2014 BY HUGO ODIOGOR.
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